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AI capability growth this year?

$19,667 Vol.

Marketplace icon Kalshi

Price History

Predictions

At least 1500 elo score
94%
At least 1550 elo score
56%
At least 1600 elo score
-14.8%
23%

Similar Predictions

Kalshi

How high will AI models score on SWE-Bench in 2025?

At least 80%
+ 1.3%
78%
At least 90%
-2.2%
23%
Kalshi

Will a Chinese AI model reach #1 in 2025?

Before 2026
16%
Kalshi

Which companies will have a #1 AI model in 2025?

Alibaba
+ 8.3%
7%
Zhipu AI
3%
01A1
2%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Best AI at the end of 2025?

Grok
-3.0%
17%
Gemini
+ 2.1%
49%
ChatGPT
19%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Highest score of any LLM on OSWorld in 2025?

At least 50
69%
At least 60
46%
At least 80
21%
See (2) more

Live Trades

  • At least 1600 elo score

    Buy 70 Yes @ 27%
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  • At least 1500 elo score

    Buy 4 No @ 89%
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  • At least 1500 elo score

    Buy 196 No @ 89%
    $21.56

  • At least 1500 elo score

    Buy 125 No @ 90%
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  • At least 1500 elo score

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  • At least 1500 elo score

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  • At least 1500 elo score

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    $8.37

  • At least 1500 elo score

    Buy 72 No @ 89%
    $7.92

  • At least 1600 elo score

    Buy 74 No @ 26%
    $54.76

  • At least 1600 elo score

    Buy 8 No @ 24%
    $6.08