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Will a Chinese AI model reach #1 in 2025?

$9,193 Vol.

Marketplace icon Kalshi

Price History

Predictions

Before 2026
16%

Similar Predictions

Kalshi

Which companies will have a #1 AI model in 2025?

Deepseek
16%
Alibaba
+ 8.3%
7%
Zhipu AI
3%
See (2) more
Polymarket

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025?

-10.0%
14%
Kalshi

Best AI at the end of 2025?

Gemini
+ 2.1%
49%
Grok
-3.0%
17%
Claude
-11.1%
4%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Best AI in Jul 2025?

Grok
+ 5.8%
28%
Gemini
-2.9%
67%
Claude
1%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Best AI in Aug 2025?

Claude
0%
Grok
0%
LLaMA
0%
See (2) more
Kalshi

How high will AI models score on SWE-Bench in 2025?

At least 80%
+ 1.3%
78%
At least 90%
-2.2%
23%
Kalshi

AI capability growth this year?

At least 1500 elo score
94%
At least 1550 elo score
56%
At least 1600 elo score
-14.8%
23%
Kalshi

Highest score of any LLM on OSWorld in 2025?

At least 50
71%
At least 80
29%
At least 90
14%
See (2) more

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