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Will the deficit be smaller in 2025 than in 2024?

$176,790 Vol.

Marketplace icon Kalshi

Price History

Predictions

In fiscal year 2025
13%

Similar Predictions

Polymarket

Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025?

17%
Kalshi

Will Trump balance the budget?

During Trump's term
10%
Kalshi

How much will US debt increase in 2025?

More than 130% of GDP
-6.3%
18%
More than 140% of GDP
-25.0%
8%
More than 150% of GDP
+ 42.9%
4%
Kalshi

How much will the government increase spending in 2025?

At least $500 billion
68%
At least $1 trillion
+ 9.4%
29%
Kalshi

How much will the Fed’s balance sheet shrink before 2026?

6.5 trillion
-28.0%
9%
6 trillion
3%
Kalshi

Will Trump halve the trade deficit?

Halved
48%
Kalshi

Number of rate cuts in 2025?

Exactly 4 cuts
+ 11.1%
5%
Exactly 5 cuts
2%
Exactly 0 cuts
+ 4.0%
13%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Filibuster weakened in 2025?

Threshold lowered
13%
Polymarket

Another US debt downgrade in 2025?

9%
Kalshi

When will the next US recession start?

Q4 2025
10%
Q4 2024
2%
Q1 2026
10%
See (2) more
Kalshi

US defaults in 2025?

Defaults
+ 66.7%
3%

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