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Will any top AI company decide to not release their best models in 2025?

$3,879 Vol.

Marketplace icon Kalshi

Price History

Predictions

Before 2026
-31.3%
11%

Similar Predictions

Kalshi

Will an open-source AI model reach #1 in 2025?

Before 2026
11%
Kalshi

Will any of the major AI companies pause research for safety reasons before 2027?

Before 2027
14%
Kalshi

Which companies will have a #1 AI model in 2025?

Anthropic
-6.7%
14%
Meta
-18.2%
10%
Moonshot AI
5%
See (2) more
Polymarket

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

5%
Kalshi

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Jan 1, 2026?

OpenAI
-0.8%
60%
Anthropic
-10.0%
14%
Alibaba
+ 175.0%
6%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Best AI at the end of 2025?

ChatGPT
-5.0%
18%
Gemini
58%
Grok
+ 23.1%
16%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Best AI in Aug 2025?

ChatGPT
-37.5%
4%
Gemini
93%
Claude
-50.0%
1%
See (2) more
Kalshi

How much compute will AI models be trained with in 2025?

More than 500 billion petaFLOP
-13.2%
66%
More than 750 billion petaFLOP
35%
Polymarket

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?

50%
Kalshi

Best AI in Oct 2025?

ChatGPT
-100.0%
0%
Claude
-100.0%
0%
Gemini
0%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Will Anthropic release an "AI Safety Level 3" model before 2027?

Before 2027
-7.1%
79%
Kalshi

Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?

Amazon
-100.0%
0%
Paramount+
-100.0%
0%
Disney
-100.0%
4%
See (2) more
Kalshi

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Before 2026
+ 20.0%
5%
Before 2030
49%
Before 2028
-1.2%
42%
Kalshi

Best AI in Sep 2025?

ChatGPT
+ 36.4%
15%
Gemini
-1.4%
72%
Claude
0%
See (2) more

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