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Will an open-source AI model reach #1 in 2025?

$2,828 Vol.

Marketplace icon Kalshi

Price History

Predictions

Before 2026
-28.6%
15%

Similar Predictions

Kalshi

Best AI at the end of 2025?

ChatGPT
+ 2.8%
19%
Gemini
49%
Grok
+ 10.0%
16%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Best AI in Aug 2025?

ChatGPT
0%
Claude
0%
Deepseek
0%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Will any top AI company decide to not release their best models in 2025?

Before 2026
-26.3%
14%
Kalshi

Which companies will have a #1 AI model in 2025?

Anthropic
+ 8.3%
13%
Meta
12%
Nvidia
3%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Best AI in Jul 2025?

ChatGPT
6%
Gemini
-2.8%
68%
Claude
1%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Will OpenAI announce an open source model in 2025?

an open-source language model
-1.6%
92%
Kalshi

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Jan 1, 2026?

OpenAI
43%
Anthropic
25%
DeepSeek
4%
See (2) more
Polymarket

Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?

+ 0.1%
94%
Polymarket

Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?

+ 0.7%
72%
Polymarket

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

12%
Kalshi

Will any of the major AI companies pause research for safety reasons before 2027?

Before 2027
+ 7.7%
14%
Kalshi

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Before 2026
6%
Before 2030
+ 0.9%
57%
Polymarket

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?

+ 17.6%
20%
Kalshi

How much compute will AI models be trained with in 2025?

More than 500 billion petaFLOP
+ 5.9%
63%
More than 750 billion petaFLOP
-7.0%
40%
Kalshi

Will Anthropic release an "AI Safety Level 3" model before 2027?

Before 2027
-1.9%
79%
Kalshi

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?

Before Jan 1, 2026
-14.0%
22%

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