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Will an open-source AI model reach #1 in 2025?

$7,712 Vol.

Marketplace icon Kalshi

Price History

Predictions

Before 2026
11%

Similar Predictions

Kalshi

Best AI at the end of 2025?

ChatGPT
+ 21.2%
20%
Gemini
+ 4.3%
57%
Grok
+ 21.4%
16%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Best AI in Aug 2025?

ChatGPT
+ 11.1%
5%
Gemini
-0.5%
93%
Claude
1%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Will any top AI company decide to not release their best models in 2025?

Before 2026
11%
Kalshi

Best AI in Nov 2025?

ChatGPT
-100.0%
8%
Gemini
-100.0%
65%
Grok
-30.0%
10%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Best AI in Oct 2025?

ChatGPT
10%
Gemini
-100.0%
68%
LLaMA
-100.0%
10%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Which companies will have a #1 AI model in 2025?

Anthropic
-4.0%
12%
Meta
+ 69.2%
10%
Moonshot AI
5%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Best AI in Sep 2025?

ChatGPT
12%
Gemini
-2.0%
74%
Grok
-100.0%
10%
See (2) more
Kalshi

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Jan 1, 2026?

OpenAI
-5.0%
60%
Anthropic
14%
Alibaba
6%
See (2) more
Polymarket

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

5%
Kalshi

Will any of the major AI companies pause research for safety reasons before 2027?

Before 2027
14%
Kalshi

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Before 2026
6%
Before 2030
+ 2.0%
49%
Before 2028
+ 1.2%
46%
Polymarket

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?

-8.3%
11%
Kalshi

How much compute will AI models be trained with in 2025?

More than 500 billion petaFLOP
+ 14.4%
76%
More than 750 billion petaFLOP
-18.6%
35%
Kalshi

Will Anthropic release an "AI Safety Level 3" model before 2027?

Before 2027
-7.1%
79%
Kalshi

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?

Before Jan 1, 2026
12%

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